Buncombe County, North Carolina, had 279,533 residents in the North Carolina Office of State Budget and Management (NC OSBM) certified estimate for July 1, 2024. The U.S. Census Bureau’s estimate for the same date was 279,210, while its July 1, 2025 estimate was 277,417. These figures are estimates for specific dates, not interchangeable counts, and the sources use different estimation programs.
Contents
- Recent population baselines
- Growth and its components
- Annual projections through 2060
- The 2040–2050 outlook
- Age, sex, race and ethnicity
- Households, mobility and geography
Recent population baselines
The decennial census provides the clearest population baselines. The U.S. Census Bureau QuickFacts: Buncombe County, North Carolina reports 238,318 residents in the April 1, 2010 Census and 269,452 in the April 1, 2020 Census. The two census counts establish a ten-year increase of 31,134 residents.
NC OSBM’s Certified County Population Estimates put the county at 269,948 on July 1, 2020, followed by 277,274 on July 1, 2023 and 279,533 on July 1, 2024. In the OSBM series, the July 1, 2023–July 1, 2024 change was 2,259 residents.
The Census Bureau series gives a slightly different recent view: 279,210 residents on July 1, 2024 and 277,417 on July 1, 2025. For its 2025 vintage, the Bureau lists a revised April 1, 2020 estimates base of 269,430. Because the reference dates, revisions and estimation methods differ, these numbers should be read as source-specific series rather than combined into a single time series.
| Reference point | Population | Source and status |
|---|---|---|
| April 1, 2010 | 238,318 | Census count |
| April 1, 2020 | 269,452 | Census count |
| July 1, 2023 | 277,274 | NC OSBM certified estimate |
| July 1, 2024 | 279,533 | NC OSBM certified estimate |
| July 1, 2024 | 279,210 | Census Bureau estimate |
| July 1, 2025 | 277,417 | Census Bureau estimate |
Growth and its components
NC OSBM recorded 10,108 additional residents between April 1, 2020 and July 1, 2024, equivalent to 3.8% population growth in that period. Its annual comparison from July 1, 2023 to July 1, 2024 showed 0.8% growth. The difference between the two reported rates reflects the different intervals and starting points.
The OSBM Population Growth 2020–2030 projection shows a 23,989-resident increase from April 1, 2020 to July 1, 2030, or 8.9% growth. It includes 24,258 births and 32,855 deaths during 2020–2030. The resulting projected natural change is negative 8,597 residents. The same projection includes net migration of 32,586 residents into Buncombe County.
This component view matters for community planning: the projection’s positive population change is paired with negative natural change and positive net migration. In other words, within this projection, migration more than offsets the difference between projected deaths and births.
For 2030–2040, OSBM Population Growth 2030–2040 projects a 23,796-resident increase and 8.1% growth. The projection includes 24,065 births and 39,774 deaths, for a natural change of negative 15,709 residents, alongside projected net migration of 39,505 residents.
| Projection interval | Population change | Growth | Natural change | Net migration |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020–2030 | 23,989 | 8.9% | -8,597 | 32,586 |
| 2030–2040 | 23,796 | 8.1% | -15,709 | 39,505 |
The intervals use the measurement periods specified by OSBM: April 1, 2020 to July 1, 2030 for the first projection and July 1, 2030 to July 1, 2040 for the second. They are projections, not later census counts.
Annual projections through 2060
The OSBM Population Summary provides projected July 1 populations at five-year points. It places Buncombe County at 281,781 residents on July 1, 2025 and 293,414 on July 1, 2030. The projection then reaches 305,325 in 2035 and 317,210 in 2040.
The later estimates continue upward: 329,151 residents on July 1, 2045, 341,138 in 2050, 353,113 in 2055 and 365,115 in 2060. These values describe the OSBM projection path and should not be presented as guaranteed future totals.
| July 1 projection date | Projected population |
|---|---|
| 2025 | 281,781 |
| 2030 | 293,414 |
| 2035 | 305,325 |
| 2040 | 317,210 |
| 2045 | 329,151 |
| 2050 | 341,138 |
| 2055 | 353,113 |
| 2060 | 365,115 |
Across the displayed projection points, the county moves from 281,781 residents in 2025 to 365,115 in 2060. The table is useful for comparing planning horizons, but it does not replace the assumptions and definitions in OSBM’s projection methodology.
The 2040–2050 outlook
The OSBM Population Growth 2040–2050 projection shows a 23,928-resident increase between July 1, 2040 and July 1, 2050, or 7.5% growth. It includes 24,328 births and 45,893 deaths during 2040–2050. The projected natural change is negative 21,565 residents, while projected net migration into the county is 45,493 residents.
The component figures describe a long-range pattern in which total population growth continues even as the projected natural change becomes more negative. The projected net migration figure is therefore central to the 2040–2050 outlook. These are modeled future values for the stated interval, not observed demographic outcomes.
Compared with the earlier projection intervals, the reported growth rate declines from 8.9% in 2020–2030 to 8.1% in 2030–2040 and 7.5% in 2040–2050. The corresponding projected natural change also shifts from negative 8,597 to negative 15,709 and then negative 21,565 residents.
Age, sex, race and ethnicity
The Census Bureau’s QuickFacts profile for 2020–2024 reports that persons under age 5 represented 4.2% of Buncombe County’s population, while persons under age 18 represented 16.9%. Residents age 65 and over represented 23.2%. Female persons represented 52.0%.
The same 2020–2024 profile reports the following race and ethnicity measures. These categories are presented as the Census Bureau labels them; Hispanic or Latino origin is an ethnicity and can overlap with racial categories.
- White-alone residents: 87.1%.
- Black-alone residents: 6.0%.
- American Indian and Alaska Native-alone residents: 1.0%.
- Asian-alone residents: 1.5%.
- Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander-alone residents: 0.2%.
- Residents identifying with two or more races: 4.2%.
- Hispanic or Latino residents: 9.5%.
- White-alone, non-Hispanic or Latino residents: 79.5%.
Taken together, the measures show both a substantial older-adult share and multiple population groups that community organizations may need to consider when assessing leadership, services and civic participation. The percentages describe the 2020–2024 period and should not be treated as a current-year survey result.
Households, mobility and geography
Buncombe County had 101,855 households during 2020–2024, with an average of 2.62 persons per household, according to Census Bureau QuickFacts. Among residents age 1 and over, 88.7% lived in the same house one year earlier during that period. This is a residence-stability measure for the stated population universe and period, not a measure of everyone who stayed in the county.
Foreign-born persons accounted for 6.7% of the population during 2020–2024. Among people age 5 and over, those who spoke a language other than English at home represented 9.4% of the population. These measures provide context for the county’s household and communication landscape, but they do not identify individual languages or migration pathways.
NC OSBM’s Municipal and Non-Municipal Population estimate for July 1, 2024 divides the county into 122,700 municipal residents and 156,833 non-municipal residents. The municipal population represented 43.9% of the county total, while the non-municipal population represented 56.1%.
| July 1, 2024 geography | Population | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Municipal | 122,700 | 43.9% |
| Non-municipal | 156,833 | 56.1% |
The municipal and non-municipal figures describe geographic distribution within Buncombe County, not separate counties or competing estimates of the entire county. For community leadership work, that distinction keeps countywide population discussions connected to the different places where residents live and participate.
It also provides a precise reference for interpreting countywide totals: the July 1, 2024 OSBM estimate separates incorporated municipal places from the remaining non-municipal geography while retaining both within Buncombe County’s population. The split is specific to that date and estimate series.