The 2024 Community Resilience Estimates (CRE) divide the U.S. population universe into three groups based on the number of social-vulnerability components: zero, one or two, and three or more. The national estimate covers 335,153,698 people. Within that universe, 34.57% had zero components, 45.15% had one or two, and 20.28% had three or more, according to the 2024 Community Resilience Estimates: National CSV.
Contents
- The 2024 U.S. baseline
- Zero social-vulnerability components
- One or two components
- Three or more components
- State-level variation
- Buncombe County and North Carolina
The 2024 U.S. baseline
The national CRE population universe was 335,153,698 people in 2024. The largest group was people with one or two social-vulnerability components: 151,311,455 people, or 45.15%. The zero-component group included 115,875,802 people, or 34.57%. The three-or-more-component group included 67,966,441 people, or 20.28%.
These figures describe the distribution of the CRE population universe, not a direct score of community performance. The Community Resilience Estimates Methodology describes CRE as a U.S. Census Bureau modeled social-vulnerability measure. It is not a direct outcome score and is not a forecast of disaster losses.
The national estimates include published margins of error. The estimate of 115,875,802 people with zero components has a margin of error of 465,814 people. The estimate of 151,311,455 people with one or two components has a margin of error of 509,144 people. For the three-or-more group, the estimate of 67,966,441 people has a margin of error of 419,100 people. The corresponding published percentage margins of error are 0.14 percentage points, 0.15 percentage points, and 0.13 percentage points, respectively.
| 2024 CRE group | Estimated people | Share of population universe | Published percentage margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zero components | 115,875,802 | 34.57% | 0.14 percentage points |
| One or two components | 151,311,455 | 45.15% | 0.15 percentage points |
| Three or more components | 67,966,441 | 20.28% | 0.13 percentage points |
The percentages are reported as published. They should not be interpreted as percentages of all residents in excluded group-quarters populations.
Zero social-vulnerability components
The state estimates show substantial variation in the share of each state’s 2024 CRE population universe with zero components. Hawaii had 383,532 people in this group, representing 26.71% of its state universe. New Mexico had 590,842 people, or 28.07%, while California had 11,016,531 people, or 28.25%.
New York’s zero-component group included 5,677,252 people, representing 29.03% of its universe. Alaska had 221,026 people, or 30.18%. These counts and shares provide different kinds of context: a large state may have a large population count even when its percentage is comparatively low, while a smaller state may have a smaller count but a higher share.
At the higher end of the reported state values, North Dakota had 331,996 people with zero components, representing 42.68% of its CRE population universe. New Hampshire had 587,415 people, or 42.48%; Minnesota had 2,422,179 people, or 42.29%; and Utah had 1,458,786 people, or 42.11%.
The 2024 Community Resilience Estimates: State CSV reports 50 states plus the District of Columbia as separate geographic records. Among states, the zero-component percentages ranged from 26.71% in Hawaii to 42.68% in North Dakota.
One or two components
One or two components was the largest national CRE category in 2024, accounting for 45.15% of the U.S. population universe. State results show where this middle category represented especially large or comparatively smaller shares.
Hawaii had 779,187 people with one or two components, or 54.26% of its CRE population universe. California had 20,352,128 people in the group, representing 52.18%. The California share was 7.03 percentage points above the national share of 45.15%.
The group represented 47.22% of the Washington state universe, with 3,727,973 people, and 47.53% of Oregon’s, with 2,005,865 people. New Mexico had 1,006,469 people in the category, or 47.81%, while Alaska had 360,715 people, or 49.25%.
Several reported states had smaller one-or-two-component shares. North Dakota had 307,828 people in the category, representing 39.58% of its universe, or 5.57 percentage points below the national share. Minnesota had 2,329,582 people, or 40.67%, and Utah had 1,549,007 people, or 44.71%.
These comparisons do not rank community outcomes. They show how the modeled component categories were distributed within each state’s CRE population universe in 2024.
Three or more components
The national three-or-more-component group included 67,966,441 people in 2024, representing 20.28% of the U.S. CRE population universe. The state figures range from 13.18% in Utah to 25.77% in Mississippi.
Mississippi had 743,327 people with three or more components, or 25.77% of its universe. That share was 5.49 percentage points above the national share. New York had 5,024,585 people in the category, representing 25.69%, while Louisiana had 1,100,614 people, or 24.39%.
New Mexico had 507,881 people with three or more components, or 24.13%. Arkansas had 705,986 people, representing 23.30%, and Alabama had 1,162,782 people, or 23.02%. Kentucky’s group included 1,002,611 people, representing 22.22%.
Texas had the largest reported count among these examples, with 6,726,715 people in the three-or-more category. Its share was 21.79% of the Texas CRE population universe. At the lower end, Utah had 456,797 people, or 13.18%, which was 7.10 percentage points below the U.S. share.
The three-or-more category is a modeled grouping of social-vulnerability components. It should not be read as a prediction that a person or community will experience a particular disaster loss, nor as a direct measurement of recovery outcomes.
State-level variation
The state estimates illustrate why a national percentage is useful as a baseline but insufficient as a description of every community. In the 2024 state records, zero-component shares differed by 15.97 percentage points between the lowest reported state value, Hawaii’s 26.71%, and the highest, North Dakota’s 42.68%. Three-or-more-component shares differed by 12.59 percentage points between Utah’s 13.18% and Mississippi’s 25.77%.
| Comparison | Lower reported value | Higher reported value | Difference from supplied figures |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zero components | Hawaii: 26.71% | North Dakota: 42.68% | 15.97 percentage points |
| Three or more components | Utah: 13.18% | Mississippi: 25.77% | 12.59 percentage points |
The supplied state comparisons also show the relationship to the national baseline. North Dakota’s zero-component share was 8.11 percentage points above the U.S. share, while Hawaii’s was 7.86 percentage points below it. Mississippi’s three-or-more-component share was 5.49 percentage points above the U.S. share, and Utah’s was 7.10 percentage points below it.
Because the state file reports population counts and percentages, readers can distinguish scale from composition. California’s 11,016,531 people with zero components and 20,352,128 people with one or two components are large counts, but the relevant shares are 28.25% and 52.18%. Smaller states can show a different relationship between count and percentage. Using both measures helps leaders interpret the size of a population group without confusing it with its share of the local universe.
Buncombe County and North Carolina
For the Asheville-area context, Buncombe County’s 2024 CRE population universe was 275,257 people. The county had 99,522 people with zero components, representing 36.16% of its universe. Another 124,724 people had one or two components, or 45.31%. The three-or-more group included 51,011 people, representing 18.53%.
| Geography and CRE group | People | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Buncombe County: zero components | 99,522 | 36.16% |
| Buncombe County: one or two components | 124,724 | 45.31% |
| Buncombe County: three or more components | 51,011 | 18.53% |
Compared with the 2024 U.S. shares, Buncombe County’s zero-component share was 1.59 percentage points higher, its one-or-two-component share was 0.16 percentage points higher, and its three-or-more-component share was 1.75 percentage points lower. These are comparisons of the county and national CRE population universes for 2024.
North Carolina’s 2024 CRE population universe was 10,871,433 people. The state had 3,954,412 people with zero components. Its three-or-more-component group included 2,120,553 people, representing 19.51% of the state universe. The county figures and state figures are separate geographic estimates; Buncombe County’s distribution should not be substituted for North Carolina’s overall distribution.
For community leadership, the practical value of these statistics is descriptive: they identify how the modeled social-vulnerability categories are distributed across a national baseline, states, and a local county. Interpretation should retain the 2024 measurement period, the specific geography, the population-universe scope, and the CRE methodology’s limitation that this is not a direct outcome score or disaster-loss forecast.